Tropical Depression 16 is Tropical Storm Noel; I Need to Dissipate

Tropical Depression 16 forms

WE HAVE TS NOEL!!!

Say hello to Noel everyone.

So Noel is here, and looks like he will be a Halloween Howler.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE

INITIAL AND FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL STORM

NOEL.

Where are the great minds thinking Noel will go?

Noel has essentially stalled out tonight, and is dumping very heavy rains over the southernmost tip of the Dominican Republic

Passage over the mountainous terrain of Haiti has severely disrupted Noel.

Media reports put the death toll so far in the Dominican Republic at 20, with 20 more missing, and this toll is almost certain to go higher.

Noel dumping torrential rains on the Dominican Republic

The heaviest rains from Noel have fallen over the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the capital of Santo Domingo, where over a foot of rain has fallen.

Noel hits Cuba and weakens significantly

The models are in good agreement that Noel will move west-northwest to northwest during the next 24 hours, then recurve sharply to the north.

The models are off to a bad start, because Noel is tracking almost due west this morning, something the models did not anticipate.

Passage over Cuba is weakening Noel, and it is looking much less likely Noel will be able to attain Category 1 hurricane strength.

Most of Noel’s heavy rains should stay offshore.

Disorganized Noel still dumping heavy rains

Noel chugging along over Cuba

An encounter with the mountains of Hispaniola has left Noel very disorganized.

Noel’s prodigious rains of over one inch per hour have slowed.

A slower arrival of this trough will allow Noel to penetrate farther west.

A stronger Noel will extend higher in the atmosphere, and will recurve sooner.

I give Noel a 30% chance of reaching hurricane strength.

Noel over water, headed north towards the Bahamas

Deadly Tropical Storm Noel has popped off the coast of Cuba and is headed north, according to the latest hurricane hunter data from 8:49am EDT this morning.

Noel is the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the Dominican Republic since Hurricane Georges.

Tropical Storm Noel remains stuck in a region of weak steering currents, just offshore the coast of Cuba.

By Friday, the models agree that Noel will transition to a powerful extratropical storm.

The main hazard from Noel will be beach erosion, thanks to the 10-foot seas expected to pound area beaches.

October 31st, 2007 | Unbelievable

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